F1 Austrian Grand Prix picks, odds: Max Verstappen heads to one of his best tracks
This Formula One season has been all about Max Verstappen and Red Bull. That will be especially true when the series goes to Austria where the track is named for Red Bull and Verstappen has won more than any other driver.
It goes without saying that Verstappen is favored to win the Austrian Grand Prix. He has -275 (4-to-11) odds to win the race on BetMGM, the same as last race in Canada.
Advertisement
Fernando Alonso is second in the odds at 7-to-1 to win. It’s been this way for several races, but anything other than a Verstappen win is a longshot outcome.
Verstappen has four wins at the Red Bull Ring, including two in 2021 when the Styrian Grand Prix formed a doubleheader at the track due to the COVID-19 altered schedule. The four victories are the most he has at any venue, only matched by four wins in Mexico. He also has more wins than any other driver in Austria. Lewis Hamilton, Michael Schumacher, Nico Rosberg and Valtteri Bottas have two wins each in the 18 grands prix the Red Bull Ring has hosted since 1997.
This short circuit suits the current Red Bull car very well. It’s a short circuit with only 10 turns (and Turn 2 isn’t really much of a turn) and three long straights. Each straight has a DRS zone and they come back-to-back-to-back. The back half of the lap is slower and gives the drivers a chance to recharge their batteries after the straights.
That layout favors cars that are good in straights and have a high top speed. This year, that means Red Bull.
The big wildcard this weekend, as with most race weekends, is the weather. There’s a high chance of rain on Friday and Saturday, including cool temperatures on Saturday, and a decent chance of rain on Sunday.
The rain on Friday matters this weekend because there is a sprint race. As a reminder, that means qualifying for the grand prix is on Friday, while Saturday is fully dedicated to the sprint race. There’s a qualifying session for the sprint on Saturday before the sprint race.
Rain may be the only thing that can stop the Red Bulls on this track.
For more on the Austrian Grand Prix, The Athletic’s F1 crew answered questions and made podium predictions.
This is a sprint race weekend. Do you like the new sprint race schedule this year with two qualifying sessions? Should sprint races affect the race order for Sunday or no?
Luke Smith: I do like the revised sprint race format this year. I’ve always been a fan of sprints, simply on the basis that it’s preferable to another practice session. The big drawback was always the fact it shaped the grid for Sunday, meaning drivers were more inclined to play it safe and weren’t looking to push all-out. The new format makes things better on that front. The “sprint Saturday” in Baku wasn’t the best, but I’m hopeful Austria might be better given the numerous overtaking opportunities.
Advertisement
Madeline Coleman: I am a sprint race fan and do prefer this schedule compared to the previous format. Creating a standalone event eliminates most of the reasons why the drivers may play it safer. Red Bull Ring is a better setting for a sprint race compared to the Baku City Circuit given the latter is a street circuit. One thing to watch at Red Bull Ring is the traffic in qualifying because it is a shorter circuit so there is a risk of impeding, depending on how many drivers are on the track. It could be a mixed grid.
Jeff Gluck: Baku checked the entertainment box with Verstappen vs. George Russell, and wouldn’t most people prefer an extra qualifying session over another practice? Well, not Verstappen – he said he was a bit bored – but maybe that’s a good thing. Less practice means more potential for a mixed-up grid anyway. As for whether sprint races should set the lineup for Sunday, I’ll say no. Last year, Kevin Magnussen won a stunning pole for Brazil – but the sprint race promptly erased his spot before the actual grand prix began (Magnussen started eighth instead). By having qualifying stand on its own, there’s a slightly higher chance for a cool storyline on Sunday if circumstances play out.
Jordan Bianchi: Sprint races are a good thing, a way to add variety to a weekend schedule that at times can feel tedious with too much practice. Adding an on-track session with actual stakes to go along with qualifying and the main race is a great way to enhance the schedule while giving fans — both at the venue and watching at home — reason to invest their time in the product; an unnecessary third practice session doesn’t check this box. As for whether Sunday’s starting lineup should be set by sprint races, in this corner we’re Team Full Field Invert.
Verstappen is even money to win both the sprint race and the grand prix on Sunday. Do you think he will do it or will be there a shake up in one of the races?
Smith: Going on the formbook, and Verstappen’s own impressive record in Austria, it’s hard to bet against him. But one thing that has been on my mind coming to Austria is that this is a track where things can get shaken up a little bit. Even through Mercedes’ dominant patch, Austria always tended to be its bogey circuit. Throw in the sprint format and a bit of wet weather, and there are a few more curveballs facing Verstappen. But honestly, it’s impossible to pick anyone but him right now.
Coleman: Statistically, it’s understandable to bet on Verstappen. Teammate Sergio Pérez is the only one who has been able to beat the Dutchman this season, and he wasn’t at the track Thursday because he “became unwell last night and is taking the day to rest to ensure he’s in the best possible health for this weekend’s race,” according to Red Bull. Looking beyond the Milton Keynes-based team, a few teams are bringing upgrades this weekend, and things could get interesting between it being a sprint weekend and the threat of weather.
Advertisement
Gluck: Can you really go against Verstappen right now? The only thing is he was winless on the Baku weekend (Pérez swept the sprint and the grand prix), but that’s not enough evidence to doubt Verstappen for Austria. F1 is in a weird spot betting-wise right now where there’s no point in putting money on Verstappen to win because it’s such little reward and there’s also not much point in putting money on someone else to win because…well, they rarely do.
Bianchi: It’s unwise to bet against Verstappen at the moment. Sure, winning both the races is a challenge, and weather could always throw a curveball at him and Red Bull. But even then, Verstappen and Red Bull are still best equipped to overcome any potential setback. Picking anyone other than Verstappen is fool’s gold.
Fernando Alonso has six podiums (only Verstappen has more), but will he win a race this season?
Smith: Yes. Red Bull should win every race given the pace of its car, but maintaining a perfect record is going to be a huge task. Pérez’s recent struggles also point to the fact Red Bull won’t be still guaranteed the win if Verstappen hits trouble. If anyone is going to be there to pick up the pieces and seize the moment, it will be Alonso.
Coleman: Even with Verstappen’s performance, it’s hard to imagine a team maintaining a perfect season because of different factors like weather, sprint weekends, unexpected car issues and competitors’ car development. Alonso is a safe bet for someone who can capitalize if there’s the opportunity.
Gluck: At this point, I’m completely resigned to Verstappen just sweeping the rest of the season. That won’t actually happen, of course – there are too many variables in motor racing, even when one team has the fastest cars – but when no one else has even led a lap since May 7 at the Miami Grand Prix…yeahhhh, it’s hard to say anyone but Verstappen will win.
Bianchi: Although it may feel like Red Bull may never lose, the odds of this actually happening are low because at some point the Red Bulls are going to have an issue that prevents one of Verstappen or Pérez from winning. Knowing that, Alonso has demonstrated he’s in the best position to capitalize when this occurs. And what a popular victory it would be; something F1 badly needs amid a season where the winner feels determined before the weekend even begins.
Random ranking time! Rank these drivers: Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, George Russell
Smith: Leclerc, Russell, Norris. Unbelievably difficult question! Three brilliant talents, and the margins between them are super, super thin. Leclerc to me has the outright raw pace of the three, something we see time and time again with his qualifying heroics. Russell and Norris are both incredibly well-rounded and fast, rarely making any mistakes. But I’d pick Leclerc as the quickest of the trio.
Advertisement
Coleman: Leclerc, Russell, Norris. I debated this more than expected because their talent is undeniable, and to Luke’s point, the margins are thin among the three. Leclerc recently has made more mistakes by taking risks; however, his raw pace and qualifying dominance are notable. It’s more difficult to separate Russell and Norris because they hardly make mistakes, and Norris doesn’t have a solid car at the moment.
Gluck: Russell, Leclerc, Norris. Are we supposed to explain ourselves here? (Looks around.) Russell consistently seems to get what he should out of the car, Leclerc is perhaps more talented but makes more mistakes and Norris needs to get faster cars again so he can remind everyone why his stock has been so high at times.
Bianchi: Oof, what a difficult question to answer. A case could be made for either Leclerc or Russell as No. 1, with Norris clearly third on this list. The case for Leclerc is his pure speed where he knows how to get the absolutely most out of a car that frequently lags. But his sometimes lack of composure when things go awry is a drawback, often leading him to make unforced errors that he shouldn’t be making. Russell is better than he’s shown this season. And if Mercedes can again field consistently fast cars the expectation is that he’ll regain the form he flashed many times in 2022 when he often outperformed his teammate. So let’s give Russell the nod over Leclerc just because he’s a bit more well rounded and less mistake prone.
Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Austria?
Smith: Verstappen, Alonso, Leclerc
Coleman: Verstappen, Alonso, Hamilton
Gluck: Verstappen, Hamilton, Pérez
Bianchi: Verstappen, Pérez, Hamilton
(Photo credit: Dan Istitene – Formula 1 / Formula 1 via Getty Images)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k29rcWxkbnxzfJFsZmluX2h9cLKQZpiuq6SntqK6jKCpmqaUYr2ztddmpp2co2K9qq%2FKrGY%3D